By R. Meester

ISBN-10: 3764387238

ISBN-13: 9783764387235

ISBN-10: 3764387246

ISBN-13: 9783764387242

"The e-book [is] a great new introductory textual content on chance. The classical manner of educating chance is predicated on degree concept. during this ebook discrete and non-stop likelihood are studied with mathematical precision, in the realm of Riemann integration and never utilizing notions from degree theory…. various themes are mentioned, akin to: random walks, vulnerable legislation of enormous numbers, infinitely many repetitions, powerful legislation of huge numbers, branching procedures, susceptible convergence and [the] significant restrict theorem. the idea is illustrated with many unique and spectacular examples and problems." Zentralblatt Math

"Most textbooks designed for a one-year direction in mathematical information disguise likelihood within the first few chapters as coaching for the facts to return. This e-book in many ways resembles the 1st a part of such textbooks: it is all likelihood, no information. however it does the likelihood extra totally than traditional, spending plenty of time on motivation, rationalization, and rigorous improvement of the mathematics…. The exposition is mostly transparent and eloquent…. total, it is a five-star ebook on chance that may be used as a textbook or as a supplement." MAA online

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**Additional resources for A Natural Introduction to Probability Theory**

**Example text**

I tell you that it is not the case that they have two girls. What is the (conditional) probability that they have two boys? 7. Exercises 33 Now suppose that I suddenly see the father of this family walking with a little boy holding his hand. Does this change the conditional probability that the family has two boys? 34. Suppose we throw a fair coin n times. Let A be the event that we see at most one head, and let B be the event that we see at least one head and at least one tail. Show that A and B are independent when n = 3 and show that they are not independent when n = 3.

What is the probability that all four queens end up at one player in a play of bridge? 5. ), one by one. (a) What is the probability that the ﬁrst ball is blue? (b) What is the probability that the last ball is blue? (c) What is the probability that the last ball is blue, given that the ﬁrst ball is blue? 6. Consider four boxes, numbered 1 to 4. We throw four balls in the boxes in such a way that each ball ends up in any particular box with probability 1/4, and in such a way that diﬀerent balls are thrown independently.

2). This seems obvious, but is, in fact, not correct. The fact that the ﬁrst person to be checked has the particular DNA proﬁle, says something about the total number of individuals with this proﬁle. 6. In that example, even when we know that a family has at least one boy, when we then actually see a boy opening the door, this new information does change the conditional probability that the family has two boys. The bare fact that a boy opened the door, makes it more likely that there are two boys.

### A Natural Introduction to Probability Theory by R. Meester

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